A hundred years from now, historians—if there still are human historians—will look back on America’s current Presidential elections in utter disbelief. Among the most hotly debated issues was whether the sitting President was senile or whether or not Haitian immigrants eat household pets. There was also the charge that nefarious humans created a devastating hurricane that swept through the American Southwest. Trans students competing in high school athletics were depicted as a threat comparable to an upsurge in Nile Fever.
The Republican’s climactic rally in Madison Square Garden was filled with lewd obscenities directed against Puerto Ricans and Latinos. Trump himself introduced a terrifying video portraying American cities at the mercy of gangs of illegal Dominicans. He ignored statistics that show native-born Americans commit far more crimes per capita than do immigrants.
Facts no longer count. Truth no longer exists Wild-eyed theories inundate social media, powered by supercharged algorithms designed to hype outrage and shatter the nation.
What will amaze future historians is that at precisely the same time as this shameful political farce was being played out—almost unnoticed and unmentioned by the analysts and pollsters—the birth of Artificial General Intelligence (A.G.I.) was approaching with astonishing speed.
Almost every day—as America was sinking ever deeper into the electoral muck and despair—companies plowing hundreds of billions into Artificial Intelligence were announcing new marvels: platforms, for instance, that analyze MRI scans in seconds. Or design revolutionary new drugs in a few weeks. The list continues: driverless taxis, amazingly dextrous robots, and platforms that beat humans at virtually any game. Others write increasingly better poetry and prose –and now actually pause to reflect before answering a prompt.
They will also converse with you on any subject in just about any language. They produce videos of any actual or imagined individual that are so incredibly realistic that most experts can now not tell if they’re real or fake.
Millions of human jobs have already been obliterated, and hundreds of millions more are on the chopping block.
That’s how things stand this week. What comes next? No one knows.
Meanwhile, taking no notice of such issues, the presidential campaign careened on inexorably, as if occurring on another planet.
Trump was admittedly a disaster, an unabashed, unhinged threat to America’s proud traditions. On the Democratic side, however, was a candidate—more rational and optimistic, to be sure, but far from reassuring in her incredibly measured interviews and her unwillingness to specify which policies of the unpopular Biden administration she would continue to support. She wrung her hands over the plight of Palestinians in Gaza, but her administration did nothing to curtail the supply of weapons that made that ethnic cleansing possible.
Another critical issue that should be discussed is the enormous concentration of wealth in the United States, which keeps increasing. As does those oligarchs’ immense political power, thanks to a 2010 decision by the US Supreme Court allowing corporations and unions to spend unlimited amounts on political campaigns. The U.S. can now boast the best Congress that money can buy. But that’s just for starters. The enormous wealth and power of super billionaires like Elon Musk span the globe. Another problem not being discussed.
But again, that issue is nothing compared to the daily jaw-dropping announcements about the progress of A.I. They may presage one of the most epochal developments in human history: Homo Sapiens on the verge of creating a new species.
Both candidates have yet to attempt to make this a major campaign issue. It’s as if they ignored the arrival of an interplanetary spaceship on the White House's front lawn.
That’s not to say Trump has not unleashed our primitive “fear of the other.” The fear that “they” will replace us and transform our society into something we no longer recognize or understand—a world where we no longer have a role.
That could describe what A.I. might bring. However, Trump’s not talking about A.I. but immigrants—undocumented and otherwise.
Incomprehensible social media algorithms—designed by AI- drag us down the rabbit hole, transforming our uncomfortable feeling of change into terrified panic. Aside from those hordes of immigrants, says Trump darkly, America’s most dangerous enemies are from within—far more evil and destructive, says Trump, than any foreign army. Once the election is over, they and the hordes of immigrants will be dealt with. If necessary, the U.S. military will be called in.
The upshot on this dismal election day is that a numbing uncertainty and fear grip America. “America at the Abyss” and “Americans Prepping for a Second Civil War” lament the headlines.
“Many now believe that the U.S. could descend into political violence,” reports the New Yorker. “Some are joining survivalist communities, canning food—and buying guns.”
Meanwhile, current estimates are that, propelled by its constantly accelerating pace of development, the capabilities of General A.I. will bypass human capabilities within the next three to five years. Possibly less. The progress is so mind-boggling that no one knows.
Once that moment—known as “the Singularity—” arrives, the chasm in capabilities between humans and their creation will continue to grow exponentially (as I wrote in another Substack).
We, Homo Sapiens, will be left in the dust or consigned to a zoo—unless science finds a way to make us part of the process---in effect tying our brains into that incredibly powerful new platform.
This raises another question: How do we decide who will be the first humans to be given those God-like powers? Or will someone already fabulously powerful, like Elon Musk, simply appropriate them for himself?
So….as you attempt to shake off the dreadful hangover of this latest Presidential campaign, beware---the nightmare is far from over.
This is no longer Science Fiction, folks; it is happening. The urgent questions confronting America—and the world--are no longer just the simple ones about how to run and maintain a democracy.
We and our leaders are now facing the most significant difficulty we’ve ever encountered: a new species—created by us—that, at best, can bring about a miraculous future for us and our descendants—or —at worst—our species’ destruction.
I agree with you completely that the biggest issue facing humanity is almost entirely ignored. And this despite the fact that we had Andrew Yang speaking up about it 4 years ago.
Further evidence that humans are not actually capable of reasoning I suppose is how researchers would put it.
Thanks Barry -- wonderful (albeit terrifying) piece.