How $300K worth of cigars, champagne, jewelry, and other unintended consequences brought war to the Mideast.
With Israel fighting a four-front war—and Bibi Netanyahu itching to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities--let’s pause to consider how the hell we got here.
It’s a twisted, tragic tale of unintended consequences. At its core are the ego-centric moves of an unscrupulous political leader desperate to avoid prosecution in a tawdry case of official corruption,
We’ll get to that.
Let’s begin with Iran’s nuclear facilities that Netanyahu wants to demolish.
Ironically, it was the U.S. in 1967 that launched Iran’s nuclear program. Lyndon Johnson provided a nuclear research reactor to America’s great ally in the Gulf, the Shah of Iran. America and its European allies continued expanding that program even after the Shah made clear that his interest went beyond mere civilian use.
When Ayatollah Khomeini seized power in 1979, everything changed: Iran was no longer America’s policeman in the Gulf but its primary enemy. (Khomeini and the Iranians’ hatred of America is the result of America and Israel’s fervid support of the Shah and his corrupt dictatorship. But that’s another tale.)
When the Shah was overthrown, Khomeini was initially against continuing the nuclear program. He changed his views after nine years of bloody war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Saddam attacked Iran’s cities with long-range missiles, some loaded with chemical weapons. Saddam, at the time, was secretly supported by the U.S., which closed its eyes to the Iraqi dictator’s use of weapons of mass destruction.
Khomeini agreed that the only sure defense in such a dangerous neighborhood was to have your own nukes. In fact, over the following years, several American Presidents, when asked about the possibility of attacking Iran, declared they were “not taking any cards off the table.” In short, the Iranians set out to get the bomb-- just as the Israelis had done decades earlier, without a peep from the United States.
In reaction to Iran’s move, however, the U.S. and other countries slapped crippling sanctions on the country. Finally, in 2015, after years of arduous negotiations, in return for the great powers gradually easing the embargo, Iran agreed to reduce significantly its nuclear program and accept rigorous international inspections. That accord was billed as a major breakthrough.
But Bibi Netanyahu was furious. When Trump came to power, the Israeli leader convinced him to quit the agreement.
Since then, despite Israel’s repeated attempts to sabotage the program, Iran’s nuclear potential has only grown, though they are still many months— possibly a year—away from having a deliverable bomb.
All the while, Netanyahu remained determined to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. For that, he would need an American okay, as well as blockbuster bombs from U.S. arsenals. But Washington resisted, fearing such an attack would ignite a much wider conflagration.
Over the last few months, however, like a slow-motion chess match, with one move after another, Israel has forced Iran’s leaders into a corner. Netanyahu’s goal: to force Iran to attack Israel and provide a pretext to carry out the devastating attack Israel’s air force has been rehearsing for years.
One of the most spectacular of Israel’s blows against Iran came on July 21, 2024, when Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas in Tehran. Haniyeh was killed along with his bodyguard while staying in a military-run guest house --just after attending the inauguration of the new Iranian president. What could be more humiliating for Iran’s leaders?
But first, pause to consider how Israel helped create Hamas.
In 1995, to undermine the secular Palestinian Liberation Organisation, the Israeli government secretly began to support a small, radical Palestinian Islamic group known as Hamas. Over the following years, as the PLO seemed incapable of bringing progress to the Palestinians and became increasingly mired in corruption, Hamas grew in power. It ultimately won elections in Gaza, expelling the PLO.
Netanyahu was delighted: he wanted the Palestinians weak and divided. There was no serious Palestinian group Israel could negotiate with, he could say. He intended to keep things that way. The Israeli Mossad even expedited the transfer of funds from Qatar to Hamas in Gaza. Despite repeated warnings, Netanyahu assured everyone he had everything under control. Until October 7.
Israel delivered another crushing blow to Iran and its allies on September 28 when its air force obliterated the underground command post of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah was Iran’s most formidable ally, commanding the largest non-state military in the world. He and many of his top officials were killed in the blast, along with scores of civilians. It was another incredibly humiliating strike against Iran, Nasrallah’s sponsor.
But, pause again for another terrible irony: Israel also created Hezbollah-though not in any deliberate way.
In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon, intent on destroying the PLO, which at the time was a power in that country. The Shiites in South Lebanon had no love for the PLO, but the violent Israeli attack—which impacted millions of civilians--led to the rise of a militant new Shiite resistance group—Hezbollah. As the brutal occupation dragged on, Hezbollah became increasingly powerful.
It received considerable aid from Iran, but as former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak later admitted, “It was our presence there that created Hezbollah.”
Hezbollah became allied with Hamas. But reportedly, Nasrallah was not warned by his Palestinian ally before Hamas’s horrific October 7 attack on Israel. Supposedly, Nasrallah would have counseled against it. But, once it occurred, Hezbollah was obliged to launch drones and missiles into Northern Israel to support Hamas, in the process displacing hundreds of thousands of Israelis.
But wait---we now hear that just a few hours before he was killed, Nasrallah and Hezbollah had finally agreed to U.S. and French proposals for a three-week cease-fire. Netanyahu, they were told, had also decided to sign on. There was a massive sigh of relief. Escalation would be avoided.
But Netanyahu never signed
.
In New York to address the United Nations, the Israeli leader criticized the international body, and then—supposedly without any warning to the U.S.--he gave the go-ahead to his air force to take out Nasrallah.
That destroyed any chance for de-escalation and brought Iran’s leaders one move away from checkmate. Backed into a corner by Israel, they seemed to have no other choice but to retaliate. Just what Netanyahu wanted.
Now, what was Hezbollah demanding to end its shelling of Northern Israel? That Israel sign a cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza. One of the key provisions was that Israel also agree to eventual negotiations for the creation of a Palestinian State. Not immediately-- sometimes down the road.
Many of Israel’s top Military and security officials favored the deal, which the United States and its allies had pushed. But Netanyahu steadfastly refused. Last July, two of his ministers threatened to resign if he agreed.
Hamas must be destroyed entirely, they declared. Nothing More, nothing less.
Without those two ministers, Netanyahu’s government would fall. There is no way he could sign, he explained to the Americans and their partners.
Now, who are those two mighty ministers who hold veto power over the Prime Minister of Israel and have thus managed to bring the Middle East to the brink of an even wider war? Are they illustrious men of wisdom? Respected
Israeli politicians? Judicious patriots?
Not really. They are the most wild-eyed of Israel’s wild-eyed Jewish supremacists. Itamar Ben-Gvir has been convicted—by Israeli courts!--of incitement to racism, destroying property, and supporting a “terror” organization. Netanyahu elevated this same man to the powerful post of Minister of National Security.
Ben Gvir’s radical colleague, Bezalel Smotrich, dreams of a theocratic state subject to religious law, a state that would extend from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River over the entire Holy Land.
Smotrich was made de facto governor of the West Bank. As such, he has authority over the "Civil Administration" – in reality, a military body – that manages the day-to-day occupation of the occupied territories.
Before taking office, he offered Palestinians the choice of leaving or staying as an inferior minority without the right to vote. His rule has unleashed a horrific wave of ethnic cleansing on the West Bank—Palestinians beaten up, murdered, driven off their lands, and their roads and villages bulldozed by Israeli settlers backed up by the Israeli army.
Why on earth did Netanyahu elevate these two racists, whose views are at the extreme edge of the political spectrum, far more extreme than Netanyahu’s? Two men who, by their veto power over Netanyahu, now threaten to set the Middle East aflame? Why did he do it?
To stay out of jail.
This brings us to the heart of the current crisis and another unintended consequence: the decision by an Israeli prosecutor in 2016 to investigate the doings of the country’s Prime Minister. He was looking into claims that Netanyahu had developed the habit of performing official favors for wealthy businessmen—in exchange for material and tangible gifts.
What kind of gifts are we talking about? Cigars, champagne, relatively expensive jewelry for his wife—all told, about three hundred thousand of dollars worth over the years. This was in exchange for special laws and other official courtesies for businessmen that to them might have been worth hundreds of millions. Netanyahu was indicted in 2019 and the trial finally began in May 2020, but was delayed several times for various reasons.
Bottom line—Today, Israel’s longest-ruling Prime Minister remains under the threat of future prosecution—and possible imprisonment. Holding on to power for Netanyahu is not so much to allow him to carry out a national dream but to save his own skin.
And it’s two of Israel’s most unsavory political leaders who allow Netanyahu to remain in Power.
But they not only have Netanyahu hog-tied, but the mighty United States as well.
In theory, the U.S. could bring Israel to heel in a minute. Biden could announce that unless Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza and ends the invasion of Lebanon, America will halt arms shipments to Israel and stop providing international cover for the Zionist State.
But, in fact, Netanyahu has Biden cornered. No matter how blatantly the Israeli leader ignores America’s diplomacy, how brazenly he thumbs his nose at the American president, Bibi knows there will be no reaction. Biden will keep sending arms to allow Netanyahu to do just about whatever he –and his two cabinet ministers —want to do. No matter what that is. Even it plunges Israel and its neighbors even deeper into a multi-front war.
Caught up in an extremely tight presidential campaign, Biden (and Harris) would not dare threaten arms shipments to Israel, nor even utter strong words of criticism.
Just as Netanyahu is under the sway of the radical, radical right in Israel, America’s leaders are under the thumb of AIPAC, the powerful Jewish lobby, and its Evangelical allies.
They’d instantly denounce any serious attempt by Biden to reign in Netanyahu. Trump’s Republicans would leap on the issue.
It won’t happen.
Incredibly, that’s where we are.
Thanks. Much appreciated. Barry
Barry, One of your most insightful. Thanks. Charles